Palm pretotype wasn't even an equivalent of a landing page with a "sign up" button or another call for action. Jeff Hawkins didn't even check the thing with potential customers. Yet he found a clever way to validate some key assumptions behind the idea.
After all, if he (the person hyped for the idea) wouldn't stick to it, no one else would.
Having said that, I think that the lines between a pretotype and a prototype (and a prototype and an MVP, too) should be blurry.
I like this frame:
- What's your total budget for an MVP?
- Now, what can you do for 10% of that?
This typically gets people to such low budgets that it completely rewires their thinking. 10x smaller doesn't leave a space for cutting a few features, but sticking with the approach ("let's build it"). It necessarily requires a different approach altogether.
Then we start talking about how to validate the assumptions behind the product idea *without* building anything, or by generating some expendable stuff with AI.
In my experience, at least 50% of such early experiments disprove the original business hypothesis. That is a huge win. We invalidated the idea for dirt cheap.
We frequently work with super-early-stage founders, often with just an idea and some seed budget.
Their intuition is to pour everything into "building an MVP," which translates to "as many features as they can possibly get."
And we're talking about very modest budgets here—5 digits, sometimes very low 6-digits.
Now, if their ideas were 100% proven to work, this might even be a reasonable path. But they aren't, so it isn't.
The 10% trick reframes the question to: what can you achieve for just a few grand? And the answer to such a question is never "build me an MVP." That much even the first-time founders with no experience in tech whatsoever understand very well.
So, eventually, we're talking about discovery, user interviews, desk research, etc. These days, we often add a vibe-coded mocked pretotype to the mix (since it's viable).
That's still enough to stop every other aspiring founder from pursuing the idea. For a fraction of the money.
They can spend the rest on a pivot, another idea, or just spend some quality time with their loved ones. Either way, it's a win.
I have learnt about pre-validating ideas and putting together quick landing pages to test them. This is a great guide breaking down the concept—I really like the ring to the word "Pretotyping." Indeed, this is even more relevant in the build-an-app-overnight AI age.
Would you recommend going by industry standard CTR/lead conversion metrics for judging the success of a pretotyping test? I know you say "Make a Hypothesis," but optimistic founders would definitely go overboard with this! Any thoughts on realistic benchmarks?
No because so much can impact CTR/lead conversion - ie messaging, user journeys etc. I think your landing page assessment can do just fine. As can a LinkedIn post - only if your account in truly active ie 10m + impressions per year. Ie the “does anyone care” is instantly self evident. “Is there significant pain” Still does not determine that it's a winner but can indicate “more research/customer discovery”. If you're constantly experimenting - I typically have 12 unrelated experiments running concurrently - most won't get to validation - when one runs hot - it's seriously obvious - it's not my enthusiasm - there is a body of enthusiasm from multiple parties that one can't ignore. Can be data as you mention. Major industry player(s). Internal stakeholders. “3rd party energy” - energy is important in creative processes - it's a signal. These ones get more priority BUT I still don't fool myself that I've found a winner - this innovation pipeline is very very fragile and so death is likely and totally ok (I don't want to waste valuable time on the most fragile ones).
Thank you so much for the detailed breakfast of the energy signals. 12 concurrent tests is pretty extensive 👏 I really like the concept of third party energy. Such signals from multiple sources could really battle test a product idea. I just wonder calibrating and measuring third party energy on so many channels would be its own beast!
Palm pretotype wasn't even an equivalent of a landing page with a "sign up" button or another call for action. Jeff Hawkins didn't even check the thing with potential customers. Yet he found a clever way to validate some key assumptions behind the idea.
After all, if he (the person hyped for the idea) wouldn't stick to it, no one else would.
Having said that, I think that the lines between a pretotype and a prototype (and a prototype and an MVP, too) should be blurry.
I like this frame:
- What's your total budget for an MVP?
- Now, what can you do for 10% of that?
This typically gets people to such low budgets that it completely rewires their thinking. 10x smaller doesn't leave a space for cutting a few features, but sticking with the approach ("let's build it"). It necessarily requires a different approach altogether.
Then we start talking about how to validate the assumptions behind the product idea *without* building anything, or by generating some expendable stuff with AI.
In my experience, at least 50% of such early experiments disprove the original business hypothesis. That is a huge win. We invalidated the idea for dirt cheap.
I love that 10% rule to validate. I think that's a great idea 💡 Thanks for sharing 🌞
We frequently work with super-early-stage founders, often with just an idea and some seed budget.
Their intuition is to pour everything into "building an MVP," which translates to "as many features as they can possibly get."
And we're talking about very modest budgets here—5 digits, sometimes very low 6-digits.
Now, if their ideas were 100% proven to work, this might even be a reasonable path. But they aren't, so it isn't.
The 10% trick reframes the question to: what can you achieve for just a few grand? And the answer to such a question is never "build me an MVP." That much even the first-time founders with no experience in tech whatsoever understand very well.
So, eventually, we're talking about discovery, user interviews, desk research, etc. These days, we often add a vibe-coded mocked pretotype to the mix (since it's viable).
That's still enough to stop every other aspiring founder from pursuing the idea. For a fraction of the money.
They can spend the rest on a pivot, another idea, or just spend some quality time with their loved ones. Either way, it's a win.
I have learnt about pre-validating ideas and putting together quick landing pages to test them. This is a great guide breaking down the concept—I really like the ring to the word "Pretotyping." Indeed, this is even more relevant in the build-an-app-overnight AI age.
Would you recommend going by industry standard CTR/lead conversion metrics for judging the success of a pretotyping test? I know you say "Make a Hypothesis," but optimistic founders would definitely go overboard with this! Any thoughts on realistic benchmarks?
No because so much can impact CTR/lead conversion - ie messaging, user journeys etc. I think your landing page assessment can do just fine. As can a LinkedIn post - only if your account in truly active ie 10m + impressions per year. Ie the “does anyone care” is instantly self evident. “Is there significant pain” Still does not determine that it's a winner but can indicate “more research/customer discovery”. If you're constantly experimenting - I typically have 12 unrelated experiments running concurrently - most won't get to validation - when one runs hot - it's seriously obvious - it's not my enthusiasm - there is a body of enthusiasm from multiple parties that one can't ignore. Can be data as you mention. Major industry player(s). Internal stakeholders. “3rd party energy” - energy is important in creative processes - it's a signal. These ones get more priority BUT I still don't fool myself that I've found a winner - this innovation pipeline is very very fragile and so death is likely and totally ok (I don't want to waste valuable time on the most fragile ones).
Thank you so much for the detailed breakfast of the energy signals. 12 concurrent tests is pretty extensive 👏 I really like the concept of third party energy. Such signals from multiple sources could really battle test a product idea. I just wonder calibrating and measuring third party energy on so many channels would be its own beast!
Do you have any suggestions on the budget size or timeframe for sending traffic to you pretotype’s landing page?
The pretotyping framework is a game-changer! I like how you illustrate it with real examples.
Hey Petar! Glad you like it ⭐